November 14, 2008
It now appears true that Fred Thompson really does want to be chair of the Republican National Committee; Thompson obviously doesn't expect to do any actual work, so the quickly-travelling rumor is that Thompson plans to run as a team with Chuck Yob, long-time political kingpin in Michigan, with Thompson taking a more ceremonial "general chair" title, and Yob actually running the operation.
I can only hope this rumor is true; this could turn the RNC chair battle into a very ugly -- and entertaining -- affair.
As you might imagine, 2012 GOP Presidential hopefuls have a significant interest in who gets picked to head up the party. I assume -- as do others here and there in the rumormongering biz -- that Mitt Romney is behind the candidacy of Michigan Chair Saul Anuzis. (Mike Huckabee has a horse in the race: his former campaign manager Chip Saltsman. Other potential nominees have surrogates in the mix as well.)
You can probably guess that Thompson is not a big fan of our former governor, because of the way reporters were talking about how all of the GOP candidates hated the Mittster. One particular sign was that, after it was clear that he was out of contention, Thompson remained in the Presidential race through the Florida primary in what seemed like a deliberate strategy to draw conservative votes from Romney and help his buddy McCain win that crucial state.
Oh, but that's nothing compared to the enmity between Romney and the aforementioned Yob. Yob headed up McCain's Michigan campaign in the primary against Romney. But that's just the latest. I highly recommend this account (in the second half of the article) of how Yob prevented Mitt's brother Scott from becoming the state's Attorney General in 1998. That was four years after Yob helped defeat Scott's wife Ronna Romney in the Republican primary for US Senate. Do you think Mitt remembers that kind of thing?
You'll also get a flavor from that 2006 story of how much love is not lost between Anuzis and Yob. Since then, Yob attempted to oust Anuzis as Michigan party chair -- Anuzis not only beat down the attempt, but then helped oust Yob from his post as Michigan's RNC National Committeeman, which he had held for eight years.
November 13, 2008
So far we have:
Rahm Emanuel, chief of staff;
David Axelrod, senior advisor;
Ronald Klain, VP chief of staff.
Maybe it's just because I'm Jewish, but am I the only one noticing that Obama and Biden are not so much assembling staff, as gathering a minian?
November 12, 2008
Continuing a trend I've been tracking and writing about for some time, women made slight gains in reaching elected office in the '08 election -- by virtue of more women elected as Democrats, but fewer as Republicans.
Here in Massachusetts, there will again be 12 women in the state senate (although not the exact same 12 as before) -- all Democrats. There will be 40 in the house, up from 38; 37 Democrats, up from 34, and just 3 Republicans, down from 4.
Nationally, the total number of women state legislators will go up slightly, from 1749 to 1784 -- 24.2% of the total, according to the Rutgers Center for American Women in Politics. Again, it was an increase in Democrats (13 more in state senates, 48 more in houses/assemblies), but a decrease in Republicans (down for senators and 22 reps).
The number of women Democrats in statewide elected office will jump from 45 to 53; the number of Republicans drops from 27 to 25.
In Washington, the number of women in the US Senate sneaks up from 16 to 17 -- thanks to a +2 for Dems, to 13, and despite a -1 for Republicans, to just 4. (Thank goodness for Maine!)
74 women in the US House will also be an all-time high, and guess how that happened? Democrats went from 51 to 57, while Republicans went from 20 to 17.
By my count -- not knowing the final results of all races -- it appears that Republicans in Congress will be just over 90% male in the coming session. Yeesh.
November 12, 2008
Apparently you're nobody if you're not mentioned as a possible chair of the Republican National Committee. I've been talking a lot about SC party chair Katon Dawson, who I put on my "25 Scariest Conservatives" list, but there are about 800 other rumored candidates -- not to mention that the existing chair, Mike Duncan, wants to stay on. Dawson's chances might be fading, according to The Hill, because it turns out that at the country club he belonged to for years, the "whites-only" policy was referring to people. Who knew? I'm sure Dawson thought it meant shoes, but you know those Republican National Committeemen and -women, they're all PC about that kind of thing.
Just in the last few days Newt Gingrich and Michael Steele have gotten their names into the conversation, although Gingrich has since claimed disinterest. (So has Mitt Romney, in case anyone thinks to ask.) Steele has risen to prominence, as I have often chronicled, by virtue of his being one of the two black men willing to speak at Republican Party press conferences. Ex-congressman Jim Nussle of Iowa is another name being tossed around, along with several state party chairs. Mike Huckabee's campaign manager Chip Saltsman is running, presumably as the funny-name option.
Today it's Fred Thompson, who I can only wish for given how amusing his Presidential campaign was. Also Michigan party chair Saul Anuzis, who is the tech-savvy candidate, which you can tell because he -- really -- announced his candidacy for RNC chair today via Twitter.
The election doesn't happen until January, so there's plenty of time for everyone and his brother (Jeb Bush?) to go in and out of the rumor cycle. Plenty of lobbying will take place at the Republican Governors Association conference starting tomorrow -- another dwindling GOP group.
November 12, 2008
After two years as state party chair, Peter Torkildsen has looked around at the condition of the MassGOP and decided: My work here is done!
The former congressman seems to have decided that he cannot commit to two more years of this humiliating farce, and has thus announced that he will not seek re-election as party chair. From his press release:
I am optimistic that our Party will regain the
Governor’s office and increase seats in the legislature in 2010, as long as we
put recriminations behind us, and recruit, train and support our best possible
candidates. It has been an honor and a privilege to serve, and I look forward to
continuing to work to build two-party competition in Massachusetts.
By "two-party competition," I assume he means between the GOP and the Green Party. Because when you're being beaten 100%-0% in statewide offices; 100%-0% in US Senate and House seats; and 90%-10% in legislative seats -- that's not really a competition.
I don't mean to pick on Torkildsen, who has always struck me as a decent guy; besides, I'm hoping he runs for Senate if a seat opens, because I want all-out, multi-candidate scrums for both parties to keep me busy -- and lots of third party candidates too!
Jennifer Nassour of Boston has already declared herself a candidate to take over as chair, as PolitickerMA reported. I'm sure some of the candidates who lost to Torkildsen two years ago will try again. Frankly, I don't know why anyone would want the job.
November 12, 2008
I had been wondering whether any New England state might take the prize for highest-in-the-nation percentage vote for Obama (not including DC). In 2004, we swept the medals; Massachusetts had the highest percentage for John Kerry, followed by Rhode Island and Vermont -- but that was with home-field advantage. I thought maybe Rhode Island might take the prize this time, although I suspected heavy competition from Illinois, Hawaii, and Delaware -- 2004's #6 and #9 for Kerry respectively, but now with major Obama/Biden ties.
Here are the 2008 top ten in Obama vote percentage, by my unofficial calaculations:
1) Hawaii, 72%; 2) Vermont, 67%; 3) Rhode Island, 63.1%; 4) New York, 62.33%; 5) Massachusetts, 62.27%; 6) Maryland, 62.14%; 7) Delaware, 62.10%; 8) Illinois, 61.9%; 9) Connecticut, 61.6%; 10) California, 61.1%.
So, no gold medal, but a solid showing. John McCain won a single county in New England: Piscataquis County, Maine (home of Moosehead Lake!), where he got just under 51% and topped Obama by 355 votes. The top New England county for Obama was Boston's own Suffolk County, where he got 77.5%, followed by notoriously hippy-dippy Berkshire County, Mass.; the chardonay-sipping vineyarders in Dukes Count, Mass; and then Windham County, Vermont and Franklin County, Mass.
November 11, 2008
Yeah, this doesn't look so good for Speaker Sal. As with the stuff that's come before, it's not DiMasi actually pushing Cognos in his own words, but shows that others along the line certainly had the impression that Sal wanted the contract to go to Cognos, and was using pressure and promises -- real or implied -- to make it happen.
It also appears to show how people running government entities -- in this case, the Department of Education -- are willing to make decisions based not on what's best for getting their job done well for the people of the Commonwealth, but based on political considerations such as promises of bigger budgets.
The Dianne Wilkerson scandal has also opened a window into this phenomenon. Beyond the issue of a lawmaker taking bribes, we're seeing how others seem to have ended up making decisions because a powerful lawmaker was pushing for a result, not necessarily because it seemed right.
This is nothing new, and happens at all levels of government -- and it's not necessarily always wrong. It's not always a clear-cut, black-and-white situation. And most of the time, those folks taking the actions at the behest of the powerful believe that the powerful have legitimate reasons for wanting things to go that way.
But if it becomes too culturally ingrained, then everyone ends up doing things to please the powerful without asking questions and judging the merits of the reasons given. And sometimes, those reasons given aend up being covers for the shady motivations of the powerful -- or those with access to the powerful.
The more we learn about the Cognos deal -- and the more DiMasi insists on not being fully open about it -- the worse it looks. That doesn't mean it's necessarily dirty. But it does mean that Massachusetts citizens are increasingly concerned, legitimately, about whether the dealings on Beacon Hill and in City Hall are normal back-room political processes, or a culture of the powerful run amok.
November 10, 2008
In case you missed it, the Baby Boomers have been busy solidifying their hold on the US House and Senate.
Of the 21 new Senators elected since 2006 (16 Dems, 5 Republicans), 15 were born between 1950 and 1960; the other six were born in the '40s: three post-war boomers, and three war-time children. The three other potential new Senators, in races not yet determined, are all Boomerish: Mark Begich of Alaska, born 1962; Al Franken of Minnesota, born 1951; and Jim Martin of Georgia, born 1945. There has still never been a US Senator born later than 1963. The Boom, according to most sociologists, ended in 1964
The House, where you would expect plenty of 35- to 45-year-olds, remains surprisingly low on post-Boomers. There will be just 37 of them in next year's Congress, by my count, which is well under 10 percent. Of the 20 newly elected freshmen (not including a few undecided races), 12 are Boomers, 3 are pre-Boomers, and just five are post-Boom. And two post-Boom incumbents were ousted, along with two born-in-'64 cuspers. (The youngest Senator, 1963-born John Sununu, was also tossed.)
It all provides evidence to my theory that the Boomers will take over the government from their elders and hold on tight to it until it's time to pass it along to the Millennials.
There is a chance, however, that we might soon see our first Gen-X US Senator -- thanks to the vacancies in Illinois and Delaware being created by the election of Barack Obama and Joe Biden.
In both states, Democratic governors will name a replacement. Delaware has a GenX-er in waiting: Biden's son Beau Biden, the state's attorney general, born in 1969. Unfortunately, Biden is off for another tour in Iraq with his National Guard unit, so he's not going to get the nod. In addition, it seems likely that the governor (either the outgoing or incoming one) will name an older 'placeholder' Senator, to give Biden a better chance at the gig in the 2010 election.
So how about Illinois? At least four post-Boomers are being mentioned in the rumor mill: US Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., born 1965; state comptroller Dan Hynes, born 1968; state attorney general Lisa Madigan, born 1966; and former congressional candidate Tammy Duckworth, born 1968.
Curiously, there are few Boomer names being bandied about; the main one is Obama pal Valerie Jarrett, who seems unlikely. The other names are all older pols like state senator Emil Jones, US Rep. Danny Davis, US Rep. Jan Schakowsky, and secretary of state Jesse White.
For those wondering about a possible Massachusetts Senator, any hopes for a post-Boomer candidate seem to rest on the GOP side. The youngest of the state's congressmen is Jim McGovern, born 1959; potential candidates Martha Coakley, Tim Cahill, Marty Meehan, and Joe Kennedy are all Boomers.
Most of the likely Republican suspects are Boomers as well: Charles Baker, Michael Sullivan, Kerry Healey, Paul Cellucci, Scott Brown, Andrew Card. Howevwer, Jane Swift was born in 1965, and I believe Darrell Crate was born 1967. I believe that Chris Egan was born in '64, so he's on the cusp.
November 09, 2008
You know of rumors that Sen. John Kerry could be Secretary of State; you know that former Harvard President Larry Summers might be Treasury Secretary. There are lots and lots of other Bay Staters supposedly in the mix for Cabinet posts. Most will turn out to be totally bogus (more interesting will be the mid-level appointments, and the regional offices for HUD, HHS, and Labor), but we should revel in the rumors while we can.
BTW, there's an interesting notion going around that Obama could give a cabinet post to one of Maine's moderate Republican Senators, Olympia Snowe (possibly Commerce Secretary) or Susan Collins (possibly Homeland Security). That would satisfy the "bipartisan" outreach -- and allow Maine Gov. Baldacci to appoint Democrat Tom Allen to the Senate, nudging the party closer to the filibuster-proof 60.
In any event, here are some of the latest Massachusetts cabinet rumors:
--Politico includes Gov. Deval Patrick in its AG rumor list, as many are doing.
--MIT's Ernest Moniz is getting buzz for Energy Secretary, including a mention in this WaPo piece.
--Harvard's Nicolas Retsinas rates an occasional mention for HUD Secretary.
--Harvard's Charles Ogletree is in the AG mix in this CBS News piece.
--AP puts MIT's Jane Garvey, former Logan Airport chief, among the Transportation Secretary possibilities.
--The Globe, among others, is talking about Ian Bowles as head of EPA.
November 08, 2008
In today's Globe there's a must-read piece of political humor -- unintentionally so -- penned by long-time Romney spokesperson Eric Fehrnstom. In this op-ed, Fehrns the philosoph muses on the difficulties of running a national campaign in the new digital age.
His main lament is that, unlike the more responsible traditional media, these Internets make people believe untrue things. This is an interesting hypothesis, because it had been my observation that, during the time Romney was in the race, the main reason that people believed untrue things about other GOP candidates was Romney's campaign. (Usually spreading those untruths through the web, particularly via the Drudge Report -- which Fehrnstrom specifically cites as a spreader of Truth for alerting people to the McCain "Bomb bomb Iran," which Drudge almost certainly did at the behest of the Romney camp.)
The main reason that people believed untrue things about Romney himself, I had always thought, was that they mistakenly believed words that came out of Mitt Romney's mouth.
Romney himself has been more visible just in the few days after the election than during the months he was supposedly helping stump for McCain. I particularly enjoy this Q&A with Fortune. His #1 advice for President-elect Obama is to put the good of the country above politics and party. You know, like Mitt always does. Oh, and specifically don't worry if that hurts your chances for re-election; after all "it would be beneficial if our presidency consisted of only one term," says Mitt 2012.
Romney is concerned, however, that the unions will pressure Barry O to sign card-check legislation, ie changing the voting mechanism for unionizing, which "would do more to harm America's long-term competitiveness than almost anything I can imagine."
Really?
November 07, 2008
Today Robert Byrd announced that he will indeed resign as chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee, as I suggested yesterday; he will be succeeded by the relatively youthful Daniel Inouye, a mere 84 years old.
That takes Inouye off the chair of the Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee. Next in line for that is Byrd's fellow West Virginian John Rockefeller -- a pup at age 71 -- who won't be able to treat Mountaineers quite as lavishly as Byrd has done at Appropriations, but Commerce Chair is still a pretty good gig for someone who wants to use it. (As opposed to John McCain, who mostly used it to try to determine whether Rafael Palmeiro was on steroids, or Ted Stevens, who infamously used the position to rhapsodize about trucks driving back and forth through the Internet tubes.)
J-Rock would leave open the much-coveted chair of the Select Committee on Intelligence; next in line for that is Dianne Feinstein, 75, of California, who reportedly wants to become the first woman to chair that committee, so she would grab it and drop the chairmanship of the powerful Rules Committee -- unless she really does want to run for Governor in 2010, when Ahnold gets term-limited back to movies.
It gets fun at the Rules Committee, which is where all the powerful folks want to be, but don't necessarily want to chair. Byrd? No. Inouye? No. Dodd? No. Next: Chuck Schumer of New York.
Still following? Next, there's the negotiations with Joe Lieberman over his consolation prize after getting stripped later this month of his chair at Homeland Security -- which will go to Levin, opening Armed Services for Rhode Island's Jack Reed (if Reed doesn't get an administration appointment).
It appears that Majority Leader Reid is offering Connecticut's "Party of Joe" a "lesser" chairmanship to keep him in the party caucus. That might be Small Business, where he would have to be leapfrogged over Mary Landrieu of Louisiana to replace John Kerry, who will be either getting sworn in as Secretary of State, or as his consolation, replacing Joe Biden as chair of the Foreign Relations Committee.
Got that?
November 06, 2008
Connecticut Senator Chris Dodd has decided to keep his chairmanship of the Banking Committee, rather than take the helm of the prestigious Foreign Relations Committee, where he is next in the seniority line behind Joe Biden. Dodd announced his decision today at a press conference today, where he also outlined his plans for the Banking Committee in the coming session.
Next in line for Foreign Relations chair? Our own Senator John Kerry -- who would rather become Secretary of State.
If Kerry does get that appointment, the next name is Russ Feingold of Wisconsin -- a huge critic of the Iraq War (and the netroots' early darling for an '08 Presidential run). Washington insider paper The Hill reports that there is some talk of skipping Feingold in favor of a more moderate figure like Bill Nelson of Florida, for fear that Feingold heading that committee would feed into public concern of lefty liberals taking over Washington.
On the other hand, who better to lead the committee than a guy who's been right about the biggest foreign policy issue of our time?
Rumor has had it for a while that Dodd might prefer to wait to take over Ted Kennedy's committee that covers health care.
This is just the start of a major game of musical chairs on the committees, caused by the departure of Biden, the likely stripping of Joe Lieberman's chairmanship of the Homeland Security committee, the possible departure of other senators to join Obama's administration, and the rumored "stepping down" of Robert Byrd as chair of the Appropriations committee, as the elderly senator is no longer active enough to do the job.
November 06, 2008
In my recent article about the future of the Republican Party, I suggested that, rather than moving toward moderation, the GOP is likely to push harder toward hard-line conservative ideological rigor. Certainly that has been the overwhelming advice coming from conservative talk radio and blog sites -- but, as I suspected, it is also coming from the party's leaders.
It appears that John Boehner may hold onto the top position among Republicans in the House of Representatives. But the number-two position in the House GOP leadership, Minority Whip Roy Blunt, and #3, Republican Conference chair Adam Putnam, are both out. It appears from reports that Eric Cantor of Virginia will move up from Deputy Whip to take Blunt's spot, and Mike Pence of Indiana will likely replace Putnam. Names being discussed as possible replacements for Cantor as Deputy Whip are Jeb Hensarling of Texas and Kevin McCarthy of California. Meanwhile, Tom Cole, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, looks like he may be replaced by Pete Sessions of Texas.
Guess what all these potential new leaders have in common?
Lifetime ratings above 95 from the ultra-right-wing American Conservative Union: Cantor--96, Pence--99, Hensarling--98, McCarthy--100, Sessions--97.
November 05, 2008
In Massachusetts
We confirmed that the state Republican Party should not be taken seriously as a major political party. Earlier this year, when people like me mocked their anemic candidate recruitment -- they couldn't even make a serious play for open seats in winnable districts -- they assured us that they had "quality over quantity." Their quality was crap, and they won nothing. A while back I wrote about how the party couldn't even make itself heard as a voice of opposition now that the Democrats control the legislature AND the governorship -- and that was before Beacon Hill turned into a cesspool of scandal, and the state still was irrelevant at the ballot box. Specific individual candidates can win certain individual races -- on their own, no thanks to the party -- but until something changes, we should all stop pretending that the MassGOP is a real entity.
On the other hand, we learned that the people of the state are smarter than pols often give them credit for. They rejected the idiot income-tax repeal, and passed the sensible marijuana decriminalization reform.
Elsewhere in New England
All Democratic all the time. New Hampshire continued its shift to blue, replacing US Senator John Sununu with Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, re-electing both freshmen Democratic US Representatives, and leaving the Democrats in control of both state legislative chambers. Maine stayed overall blue while again returning its moderate GOP Senator to Washington. Connecticut tossed out the last GOP congressman in New England.
Nationally: Turnout
For two years, I've been squawking that this time, young adults really, really would come out to vote. Those Millennials, they all care about participation and taking action and all that. They let me down. According to the exit polls, 18- 29-year-olds accounted for the same stupid 18% of the electorate as they did in 2000 and 2004. I really, truly, thought they would push that number over 20% for sure. Stupid young jerks -- I'm done defending you. Also, Hispanics didn't boost their percentage of the total vote, which is disappointing, but I guess at least they kept up with the overall increase in turnout.
Nationally: Democratic gains
Democrats didn't pummel the GOP as badly as some (who, me?) might have predicted, but the beating was still impressive. In the Senate, Democrats held all of their own seats, and took at least five away from the GOP; four more remained uncertain as of this morning. In the House, the Democrats held almost every seat they swiped from the GOP in '06, and appear to have gained a net of at least 18 more seats, with five more pending. Democrats made more gains in state legislatures, including big takeovers in the New York Senate and Ohio House. Plus, a Democrat took the governorship in Missouri, won the open Governor race in North Carolina, and retained the Washington governorship, won last time in a squeaker. Oh yeah, and the Democratic Presidential nominee won nearly a third of the states that went Republican four years ago.
Nationally: More regionalization
Democrats picked up Senate seats in the northeast, southwest, and what we will have to start calling the "eastern seaboard" -- identifying Virginia and North Carolina, like Maryland and Delaware before them, more with their northern coastal elite neighbors than their former confederate partners. Those regions are also where Obama picked up states, along with the upper-midwest. Ditto the Congress, where Democrats picked up additional seats in the northeast, the upper-midwest/rust belt, the southwest, and the eastern seaboard plus Florida. They picked up almost nothing in the rest of the south or the plains states, which is where most of the GOP seats are already. Same thing at the state level: Democrats took over chambers in New York, Ohio, Delaware, Wisconsin, and Nevada; Republicans took over chambers in Tennessee, Oklahoma, and Montana.
Nationally: Racial harmony? Maybe not
If you're anything like me, you were genuinely moved by the election of a black President yesterday, and entered today optimistic about the glorious future of our can-do, all-stick-together, forward-progress nation. It's nice to think that, anyway. The truth is that, despite the fact that four-fifths of the country thinks the country is heading in the crapper and that it's all the fault of the Republicans in Washington, white Americans voted for the Republican who's spent the last quarter-century in Washington and clearly agrees with the policies of the most unpopular sitting President in recorded history. According to the national exit polls, white Americans voted for McCain 55-43 -- a little less Republican than in '04 and about identical to '00. That three-point gain from Kerry in '04 was actually concentrated in the states moving toward blue. Let's take a look at how racial harmony is working in the South, shall we? In the eight core southern states, Obama's share of the white vote beat Kerry's in only one -- South Carolina, where in went from 22 to 26 percent. It stayed essentially the same, at around 35%, in Kentucky and Tennessee, and stated at 23% in Georgia. In Arkansas, Obama got 30% of the white vote, compared with 36% that Kerry got -- and remember again, nationally Obama did better than Kerry. In Louisiana, where Kerry got 24% of the white vote, Obama got just 14%. In Mississippi, the figure dropped from 14% to 11%, and in Alabama from 19% to just 10%.
You're reading that correctly: across Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, barely one in every 10 white voters chose Barack Obama. So, don't get too kumbaya about your country just yet.
November 05, 2008
I thought John McCain's speech was exceptionally gracious. I thought Barack Obama's speech was very good. I thought the moment was phenomenal. I'm not sure what happens when the actual governing starts, but for a moment -- notably, in the midst of a multi-year ebb in the national self-esteem -- it was nice to feel good about ourselves.